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Release of Dynare 4.3.2
by Sébastien Villemot 18 Jan '13

18 Jan '13

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.3.2. This is a bugfix release. The Windows packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The Mac and GNU/Linux packages (for Debian and Ubuntu) should follow soon. All users are encouraged to upgrade. The new release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 8.0 (R2012b) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.2 to 3.6. Here is a list of the problems identified in version 4.3.1 and that have been fixed in version 4.3.2: - Computation of posterior distribution of unconditional variance decomposition was sometimes crashing (only for very large models) - Estimation with `mode_compute=6' was sometimes crashing - Derivative of erf() function was incorrect - The `check' command was not setting `oo_.dr.eigval' unless `stoch_simul' was also used - Computation of conditional forecast when the constraint is only on one period was buggy - Estimation with `mode_compute=3' was crashing under Octave On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics Dynare developer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien

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Release of Dynare 4.3.1
by Sébastien Villemot 11 Oct '12

11 Oct '12

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.3.1. This release adds a few minor features and fixes various bugs. The Windows and Mac packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-stable The GNU/Linux packages (for Debian and Ubuntu) should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. The new release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 8.0 (R2012b) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.2 to 3.6. Here is the list of the main user-visible changes: * New features in the user interface: - New `@#ifndef' directive in the macro-processor - Possibility of simultaneously specifying several output formats in the `graph_format' option - Support for XLSX files in `datafile' option of `estimation' and in `initval_file' * Bugs and problems identified in version 4.3.0 and that have been fixed in version 4.3.1: - Shock decomposition was broken - The welfare computation with `ramsey_policy' was buggy when used in conjunction with `histval' - Estimation of models with both missing observations and measurement errors was buggy - The option `simul_replic' was broken - The macro-processor directive `@#ifdef' was broken - Identification with `max_dim_cova_group > 1' was broken for specially degenerate models (when parameter theta has pairwise collinearity of one with multiple other parameters, i.e. when all couples (theta,b), (theta,c), ... (theta,d) have perfect collinearity in the Jacobian of the model) - The `parallel_test' option was broken - Estimation with correlated shocks was broken when the correlations were specified in terms of correlation and not in terms of co-variance - The Windows package was broken with MATLAB 7.1 and 7.2 - When using `mode_compute=0' with a mode file generated using `mode_compute=6', the value of option `mh_jscale' was not loaded - Using exogenous deterministic variables at 2nd order was causing a crash - The option `no_create_init' for the `ms_estimation' command was broken - Loading of datafiles with explicit filename extensions was not working - The preprocessor had a memory corruption problem which could randomly lead to crashes On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-84-04

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Release of Dynare 4.3.0
by Sébastien Villemot 15 Jun '12

15 Jun '12

Dear Dynare friends, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.3.0. This major release adds new features and fixes various bugs. The Windows and Mac packages are already available for download at: http://www.dynare.org/download/dynare-4.3 The GNU/Linux packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. The new release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 7.14 (R2012a) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.2 to 3.6. Here is the list of the main user-visible changes: * New major algorithms: - Nonlinear estimation with a particle filter based on a second order approximation of the model, as in Fernández-Villaverde and Rubio-Ramírez (2005); this is triggered by setting `order=2' in the `estimation' command - Extended path solution method as in Fair and Taylor (1983); see the `extended_path' command - Support for Markov-Switching Structural Bayesian VARs (MS-SBVAR) along the lines of Sims, Waggoner and Zha (2008) (see the dedicated section in the reference manual) - Optimal policy under discretion along the lines of Dennis (2007); see the `discretionary_policy' command - Identification analysis along the lines of Iskrev (2010); see the `identification' command - The Global Sensitivity Analysis toolbox (Ratto, 2008) is now part of the official Dynare distribution * Other algorithmic improvements: - Stochastic simulation and estimation can benefit from block decomposition (with the `block' option of `model'; only at 1st order) - Possibility of running smoother and filter on a calibrated model; see the `calib_smoother' command - Possibility of doing conditional forecast on a calibrated model; see the `parameter_set=calibration' option of the `conditional_forecast' command - The default algorithm for deterministic simulations has changed and is now based on sparse matrices; the historical algorithm (Laffargue, Boucekkine and Juillard) is still available under the `stack_solve_algo=6'option of the `simul' command - Possibility of using an analytic gradient for the estimation; see the `analytic_derivation' option of the `estimation' command - Implementation of the Nelder-Mead simplex based optimization routine for computing the posterior mode; available under the `mode_compute=8' option of the `estimation' command - Implementation of the CMA Evolution Strategy algorithm for computing the posterior mode; available under the `mode_compute=9' option of the `estimation' command - New solvers for Lyapunov equations which can accelerate the estimation of large models; see the `lyapunov' option of the `estimation' command - New solvers for Sylvester equations which can accelerate the resolution of large models with block decomposition; see the `sylvester' option of the `stoch_simul' and `estimation' commands - The `ramsey_policy' command now displays the planner objective value function under Ramsey policy and stores it in `oo_.planner_objective_value' - Theoretical autocovariances are now computed when the `block' option is present - The `linear' option is now compatible with the `block' and `bytecode' options - The `loglinear' option now works with purely backward or forward models at first order * New features in the user interface: - New mathematical primitives allowed in model block: `abs()', `sign()' - The behavior with respect to graphs has changed: + By default, Dynare now displays graphs and saves them to disk in EPS format only + The format can be changed to PDF or FIG with the new `graph_format' option + It is possible to save graphs to disk without displaying them with the new `nodisplay' option - New `nocheck' option to the `steady' command: tells not to check the steady state and accept values given by the user (useful for models with unit roots) - A series of deterministic shocks can be passed as a pre-defined vector in the `values' statement of a `shocks' block - New option `sub_draws' in the `estimation' command for controlling the number of draws used in computing the posterior distributions of various objects - New macroprocessor command `@#ifdef' for testing if a macro-variable is defined - New option `irf_shocks' of the `stoch_simul' command, to allow IRFs to be created only for certain exogenous variables - In the parallel engine, possibility of assigning different weights to nodes in the cluster and of creating clusters comprised of nodes with different operating systems (see the relevant section in the reference manual) - It is now possible to redefine a parameter in the `steady_state_model' block (use with caution) - New option `maxit' in the `simul' and `steady' commands to determine the maximum number of iterations of the nonlinear solver - New option `homotopy_force_continue' in the `steady' command to control the behavior when a homotopy fails - Possibility of globally altering the defaults of options by providing a file in the `GlobalInitFile' field of the configuration file (use with caution) - New option `nolog' to the `dynare' command line to avoid creating a logfile - New option `-D' to the `dynare' command line with for defining macro-variables * Miscellaneous changes: - The `use_dll' option of `model' now creates a MEX file for the static model in addition to that for the dynamic model - The `unit_root_vars' command is now obsolete; use the `diffuse_filter' option of the `estimation' command instead - New option `--burn' to Dynare++ to discard initial simulation points - New top-level MATLAB/Octave command `internals' for internal documentation and unitary tests * Bugs and problems identified in version 4.2.5 and that have been fixed in version 4.3.0: - Backward models with the `loglinear' option were incorrectly handled - Solving for hyperparameters of inverse gamma priors was sometimes crashing - The deterministic solver for purely forward models was broken - When running `estimation' or `identification' on models with non-diagonal structural error covariance matrices, while not simultaneously estimating the correlation between shocks (i.e. calibrating the correlation), the off-diagonal elements were incorrectly handled or crashes were occuring - When using the `prefilter' option, smoother plots were omitting the smoothed observables - In the rare case of entering and expression x as x^(alpha-1) with x being 0 in steady state and alpha being a parameter equal to 2, the Jacobian was evaluating to 0 instead of 1 - Setting the prior for shock correlations was failing if a lower bound was not explicitly specified * References: - Dennis, Richard (2007): “Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11(1), 31–55 - Fair, Ray and John Taylor (1983): “Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectation Models,” Econometrica, 51, 1169–1185 - Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Juan Rubio-Ramírez (2005): “Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 891–910 - Iskrev, Nikolay (2010): “Local identification in DSGE models,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(2), 189–202 - Ratto, Marco (2008): “Analysing DSGE models with global sensitivity analysis'', Computational Economics, 31, 115–139 - Sims, Christopher A., Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha (2008): “Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,” Journal of Econometrics, 146, 255–274 -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-84-04 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Release of Dynare 4.2.5
by Sébastien Villemot 16 Mar '12

16 Mar '12

We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.2.5. This is a bugfix release. The Windows and Mac packages for the new release are already available for download at the official Dynare website <http://www.dynare.org>. Linux packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. The new release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 7.14 (R2012a) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.0 to 3.6. Note that GNU Octave users under Windows will have to upgrade to GNU Octave version 3.6.1 (MinGW). The Octave installer can be downloaded at: http://www.dynare.org/octave/Octave3.6.1_gcc4.6.2_20120303-setup.exe Here is a non-exhaustive list of the problems identified in version 4.2.4 and that have been fixed in version 4.2.5: * The MATLAB optimization toolbox was sometimes not correctly detected even when installed * Using the inverse gamma distribution with extreme hyperparameter values could lead to a crash * Various issues in the accelerated deterministic solver with block decomposition * Various issues in the parallelization engine * Compatibility issues with the Global Sensitivity Analysis toolbox * The Dynare++ binary was broken in the Windows package because of a missing dynamic library -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-84-04 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Dynare Summer School 2012
by Sébastien Villemot 13 Mar '12

13 Mar '12

The Dynare Summer School 2012 will take place from June 18 to June 22, 2012 in Paris, France. GOALS OF SUMMER SCHOOL The school will provide an introduction to Dynare and to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling. Dynare is a free sofware for simulating and estimating DSGE models. The courses will focus on simulation, estimation of DSGE models as well as computation of optimal policy, identification and sensitivity analysis. It will be also the occasion to introduce the new features in Dynare 4.3 (to be released before the Summer School). This Summer school is aimed at beginners as well as at more experienced researchers. PhD students are encouraged to participate. APPLICATION Interested people should fill the form at: http://www.dynare.org/django2/SummerSchool/ Application should be done *before April 1st, 2012*. You will have to upload a CV and a recent research paper. We will confirm acceptance by April 15, 2012. People working in organizations member of DSGE-net (Bank of Finland, Banque de France, Capital Group, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Norges Bank, Sverige Riksbank, Swiss National Bank) should register via their network representative. REGISTRATION FEE - Registration fee for academics (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 150 € - Registration fee for financial institutions not member of DSGE-net (including lunches and one diner, but no accomodation): 1600 € WORKSHOP VENUE Banque de France 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs 75001 Paris France WORKSHOP ORGANIZATION This is a “portable only” workshop. Each participant is required to come with his/her portable computer with MATLAB version 7.0 or above installed. We will provide WiFi access, but participants shouldn't rely on it to access a MATLAB license server at their own institution. As an alternative to MATLAB, it is possible to use the free software GNU Octave, version 3.0 or higher (see http://www.dynare.org/DynareWiki/DynareOctave). WORKSHOP DRESSING CODE Casual. WORKSHOP ANIMATORS - Stéphane Adjemian (CEPREMAP and Université du Maine) - Michel Juillard (Banque de France) - Ferhat Mihoubi (CEPREMAP and Université d’Évry) - Sébastien Villemot (CEPREMAP and Paris School of Economics) - Marco Ratto (Joint Research Centre, European Commission) This workshop is organized with the support of Banque de France, CEPREMAP and DSGE-net. PRELIMINARY PROGRAM See: http://www.dynare.org/summerschool/2012/program.pdf -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-84-04 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Dynare Conference 2012
by Sébastien Villemot 21 Feb '12

21 Feb '12

Dear Dynare users and friends, The 8th annual Dynare Conference will be held in Zurich (Switzerland) on September 20–21, 2012. The call for papers is enclosed. Regards, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-84-04 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Release of Dynare 4.2.4
by Sébastien Villemot 02 Dec '11

02 Dec '11

Dear Dynare users, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.2.4. This is a bugfix release. It comes only a few days after the previous release, because version 4.2.3 was affected by a critical bug (see below). The Windows package for the new release is already available for download at the official Dynare website <http://www.dynare.org>. The Mac and Linux packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade, especially those who have installed the buggy 4.2.3 release. The new release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 7.13 (R2011b) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.0 to 3.4. Here is the list of the problems identified in version 4.2.3 and that have been fixed in version 4.2.4: * Second order approximation was broken for most models, giving incorrect results (this problem only affects version 4.2.3, not previous versions) * Bayesian priors with inverse gamma distribution and very small variances were giving incorrect results in some cases * The `model_diagnostics' command was broken On behalf of the Dynare team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-49-90 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Release of Dynare 4.2.3
by Sébastien Villemot 30 Nov '11

30 Nov '11

Dear Dynare users, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.2.3. This is a bugfix release. The Windows package is already available for download at the official Dynare website <http://www.dynare.org>. The Mac and Linux packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 7.13 (R2011b) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.0 to 3.4. Here is a non-exhaustive list of the problems identified in version 4.2.2 and that have been fixed in version 4.2.3: * `steady_state_model' was broken for lags higher than 2 * `simult_.m' was not working correctly with `order=3' if `k_order_solver' had not been explicitly specified * `stoch_simul' with `order=3' and without `periods' option was reporting dummy theoretical moments * Under Octave, option `solve_algo=0' was causing crashes in `check' and `stoch_simul' * Identification module was broken * The test for singularity in the model reporting eigenvalues close to 0/0 was sometimes reporting false positives * The `conditional_variance_decomposition' option was not working if one period index was 0. Now, Dynare reports an error if the periods are not strictly positive. * Second order approximation was buggy if one variable was not present at the current period On behalf of the Dynare Team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-49-90 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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Release of Dynare 4.2.2
by Sébastien Villemot 04 Oct '11

04 Oct '11

Dear Dynare users, We are pleased to announce the release of Dynare 4.2.2. This is a bugfix release. The Windows package is already available for download at the official Dynare website <http://www.dynare.org>. The Mac and Linux packages should follow soon. All users are strongly encouraged to upgrade. This release is compatible with MATLAB versions ranging from 7.0 (R14) to 7.13 (R2011b) and with GNU Octave versions ranging from 3.0 to 3.4. Here is a list of the problems identified in version 4.2.1 and that have been fixed in version 4.2.2: * The secondary rank test following the order test of the Blanchard and Kahn condition was faulty and almost never triggered * The variance prior for BVAR “à la Sims” with only one lag was inconsistent. The solution implemented consists of adding one extra observation in the presample used to compute the prior; as a consequence, the numerical results for all estimations will be slightly different in future releases (thanks to Marek Jarociński for spotting this) * The `conditional_forecast' command was buggy: it was always using the posterior mode, whatever the value of the `parameter_set' option * `STEADY_STATE' was not working correctly with certain types of expressions (the priority of the addition and substraction operators was incorrectly handled) * With the `block' option of `model', the preprocessor was failing on expressions of the form "a^b" (with no endogenous in "a" but an endogenous in "b") * Some native MATLAB statements were not correctly passed on to MATLAB (e.g. x = { 'foo' 'bar' } ) * `external_function' was crashing in some circumstances * The lambda parameter for HP filter was restricted to integer values for no good reason * The `load_mh_file' option of `estimation' was crashing under Octave for Windows (MinGW version) * Computation of steady state was failing on model contains auxiliary variables created by leads or lags larger than 2 or by of the `EXPECTATION' operator * Compilation of MEX files for MATLAB was failing with GCC 4.6 On behalf of the Dynare team, -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics at CEPREMAP & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-49-90 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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First Dynare Working Papers
by Sébastien Villemot 28 Sep '11

28 Sep '11

Dear Dynare users, Please find below the list of the first papers added to the Dynare Working Papers series. If you want to add your paper to the series, instructions on how to proceed are on: http://www.dynare.org/wp/desc Summary of contents: #9: Getting Normalization Right: Dealing with ‘Dimensional Constants’ in Macroeconomics Cristiano Cantore, Paul Levine #8: Indirect Likelihood Inference Michael Creel, Dennis Kristensen #7: Évaluation de la politique monétaire dans un modèle DSGE pour la zone euro Stéphane Adjemian, Antoine Devulder #6: Taking Perturbation to the Accuracy Frontier: A Hybrid of Local and Global Solutions Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar, Sébastien Villemot #5: Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure Marcelo Ferman #4: Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth Tom Holden #3: A Graphical Representation of an Estimated DSGE Model Mariano Kulish, Callum Jones #2: Solving rational expectations models at first order: what Dynare does Sébastien Villemot #1: Dynare: Reference Manual, Version 4 Stéphane Adjemian, Houtan Bastani, Michel Juillard, Ferhat Mihoubi, George Perendia, Marco Ratto, Sébastien Villemot Contents: #9: Getting Normalization Right: Dealing with ‘Dimensional Constants’ in Macroeconomics By: Cristiano Cantore Paul Levine Date: 2011-07 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp009.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp009.zip We contribute to a recent literature on the normalization, calibration and estimation of CES production functions. The problem arises because CES ‘share’ parameters are not in fact shares, but depend on underlying dimensions - they are ‘dimensional constants’ in other words. It follows that such parameters cannot be calibrated, nor estimated unless the choice of units is made explicit. We use an RBC model to demonstrate two equivalent solutions. The standard one expresses the production function in deviation form about some reference point, usually the steady state of the model. Our alternative, ‘re-parametrization’, expresses dimensional constants in terms of a new dimensionless (share) parameter and all remaining dimensionless ones. We show that our ‘re-parametrization’ method is equivalent and arguably more straightforward than the standard normalization in deviation form. We then examine a similar problem of dimensional constants for CES utility functions in a two-sector model and in a small open economy model; then re-parametrization is the only solution to the problem, showing that our approach is in fact more general. #8: Indirect Likelihood Inference By: Michael Creel Dennis Kristensen Date: 2011-07 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp008.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp008.zip Given a sample from a fully specified parametric model, let $Z_n$ be a given finite-dimensional statistic - for example, an initial estimator or a set of sample moments. We propose to (re-)estimate the parameters of the model by maximizing the likelihood of $Z_n$. We call this the maximum indirect likelihood (MIL) estimator. We also propose a com- putationally tractable Bayesian version of the estimator which we refer to as a Bayesian Indirect Likelihood (BIL) estimator. In most cases, the density of the statistic will be of unknown form, and we develop simulated versions of the MIL and BIL estimators. We show that the indirect likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed, with the same asymptotic variance as that of the corresponding efficient two-step GMM estimator based on the same statistic. However, our likelihood-based estimators, by taking into account the full finite-sample distribution of the statistic, are higher order efficient relative to GMM-type estimators. Furthermore, in many cases they enjoy a bias reduction property similar to that of the indirect inference estimator. Monte Carlo results for a number of applications including dynamic and nonlinear panel data models, a structural auction model and two DSGE models show that the proposed estimators indeed have attractive finite sample properties. #7: Évaluation de la politique monétaire dans un modèle DSGE pour la zone euro By: Stéphane Adjemian Antoine Devulder Date: 2011-05 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp007.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp007.tar.bz2 Dans cet article nous présentons de façon détaillée un modèle DSGE canonique et montrons comment celui-ci peut être simulé puis estimé. Nous proposons deux applications sur la base du modèle estimé. Dans la première nous évaluons les conséquences sur le bien être social de la forme de la politique monétaire. On montre que le bien être social est significativement dégradé si la Banque Centrale ne prend pas en compte l’écart de production. Dans la seconde, nous interrogeons le modèle sur la publicité que la Banque Centrale doit faire autour de sa politique. Nous montrons que face à un choc de productivité négatif il est préférable de ne pas annoncer une politique monétaire accommodante, afin de limiter l’ampleur des tensions inflationnistes. #6: Taking Perturbation to the Accuracy Frontier: A Hybrid of Local and Global Solutions By: Lilia Maliar Serguei Maliar Sébastien Villemot Date: 2011-05 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp006.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp006.tar.gz Perturbation methods produce solutions of lower accuracy than global Euler equation-based methods. In the present paper, we implement a hybrid method that solves for some policy functions locally (using standard perturbation) and solves for the other policy functions globally (using closed-form expressions and a numerical solver). Our hybrid method extends the current speed-accuracy frontier: for a multi-country RBC model used for comparing numerical methods in a special 2011 issue of the JEDC, we attain higher accuracy of solutions than any other method participating in the comparison analysis. Our solutions are computed with the help of Dynare, and the programs are publicly available. #5: Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure By: Marcelo Ferman Date: 2011-05 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp005.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp005.mod This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of endogenous growth that is capable of generating substantial degrees of endogenous persistence in productivity. When products go out of patent protection, the rush of entry into their production destroys incentives for process improvements. Consequently, old production processes are enshrined in industries producing non-protected products, resulting in aggregate productivity persistence. Our model also generates sizeable delayed movements in productivity in response to preference shocks, providing a form of endogenous news shock. Finally, if we calibrate our model to match a high aggregate mark-up then we can replicate the negative response of hours to a positive technology shock, even without the inclusion of any frictions. #4: Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth By: Tom Holden Date: 2011-05 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp004.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp004.zip This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of endogenous growth that is capable of generating substantial degrees of endogenous persistence in productivity. When products go out of patent protection, the rush of entry into their production destroys incentives for process improvements. Consequently, old production processes are enshrined in industries producing non-protected products, resulting in aggregate productivity persistence. Our model also generates sizeable delayed movements in productivity in response to preference shocks, providing a form of endogenous news shock. Finally, if we calibrate our model to match a high aggregate mark-up then we can replicate the negative response of hours to a positive technology shock, even without the inclusion of any frictions. #3: A Graphical Representation of an Estimated DSGE Model By: Mariano Kulish Callum Jones Date: 2011-05 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp003.pdf Source: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp003.zip We write a New Keynesian model as an aggregate demand curve and an aggregate supply curve, relating inflation to output growth. The graphical representation shows how structural shocks move aggregate demand and supply simultaneously. We estimate the curves on US data from 1948 to 2010. The Great Recession in 2008-09 is explained by a collapse of aggregate demand driven by adverse preference and permanent technology shocks, and expectations of low inflation. #2: Solving rational expectations models at first order: what Dynare does By: Sébastien Villemot Date: 2011-04 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp002.pdf This paper describes in detail the algorithm implemented in Dynare for computing the first order approximated solution of a nonlinear rational expectations model. The core of the algorithm is a generalized Schur decomposition (also known as the QZ decomposition), as advocated by several authors in the litterature. The contribution of the present paper is to focus on implementation details that make the algorithm more generic and more efficient, especially for large models. #1: Dynare: Reference Manual, Version 4 By: Stéphane Adjemian Houtan Bastani Michel Juillard Ferhat Mihoubi George Perendia Marco Ratto Sébastien Villemot Date: 2011-04 PDF: http://www.dynare.org/wp-repo/dynarewp001.pdf Dynare is a software platform for handling a wide class of economic models, in particular dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) and overlapping generations (OLG) models. The models solved by Dynare include those relying on the rational expectations hypothesis, wherein agents form their expectations about the future in a way consistent with the model. But Dynare is also able to handle models where expectations are formed differently: on one extreme, models where agents perfectly anticipate the future; on the other extreme, models where agents have limited rationality or imperfect knowledge of the state of the economy and, hence, form their expectations through a learning process. Dynare offers a user-friendly and intuitive way of describing these models. It is able to perform simulations of the model given a calibration of the model parameters and is also able to estimate these parameters given a dataset. Dynare is a free software, which means that it can be downloaded free of charge, that its source code is freely available, and that it can be used for both non-profit and for-profit purposes. -- Sébastien Villemot Researcher in Economics at CEPREMAP & Debian Maintainer http://www.dynare.org/sebastien Phone: +33-1-40-77-49-90 - GPG Key: 4096R/381A7594

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