Hi,

could someone with familiarity with forecast and conditional_forecast at some point answer http://www.dynare.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4272.

To me the manual provides only scarce information on this issue. Hence, we should also make this difference more explicit in the manual.

As far as I understand it from the manual, forecast always starts at the steady state. After estimation, it thus starts at the steady state of the posterior mode? Or does it start at the smoothed/filtered values for the last period`?

In contrast, conditional_forecast “computes forecasts on an estimated model for a given constrained path of some future endogenous variables.“ But what is the starting point?

Best,

Johannes

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Johannes Pfeifer

Department of Economics

University of Tuebingen

Mohlstrasse 36

72074 Tuebingen

Germany

Phone: +49 7071 2974137